Developing Future Transport Scenarios
How can transport policymakers plan when historical trends and assumptions may not adequately predict future outcomes? How can they account for uncertainty, unforeseen disruptions and shifting trends? This project explores alternative methods for transport planning that envision a preferred future and plan the necessary actions to reach it.
This report focuses on “backcasting” – a planning method that works backwards from strategic goals – and how its application in the transport sector can help policymakers deal with uncertainty and work towards sustainability targets. The study promotes a shift in transport planning methodology, where authorities complement traditional trend-based forecasting approaches with forward-looking, goal-driven analysis. It also offers concrete guidance on when and how to use this planning approach, and on how to assess and communicate about the uncertainty of planning outcomes.
The report features a review of existing vision-led transport planning practices along with case studies from Austria, Finland, Japan and Norway. It also offers broader insights and recommendations applicable to transport planning efforts in other settings.
Join our "Ask the Author" expert webinar with your questions on Thursday, 11 December
Policy Insights
- Develop a governance structure to systematise backcasting.
- Promote cross-sectoral collaboration and co-ordination across institutional levels.
- Promote long-term, vision-oriented mandates in infrastructure and transport planning.
- Strengthen strategic communication and public engagement.
- Explore hybrid models for backcasting application.
- Explicitly incorporate, manage and communicate uncertainty.
- Encourage participatory, pluralistic, multi-scenario backcasting.